24 April 2026, Singapore - The housing market may be witnessing shifting demand dynamics as private residential property prices and HDB resale flat prices diverge. Private home prices edged up in Q1 2026 while public housing resale prices posted their first quarterly decline in almost seven years. Contrasting trends were also observed in transaction volumes as the moderation in HDB resale prices helped to push up resale flat volume, while overall private home sales were down quarter-on-quarter (QOQ), partly due to fewer new units launched in Q1 2026, as well as slower private resale and sub-sales.

Q1 2026 URA Private Residential Property Index

Data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that the overall private home prices rose by 0.9% QOQ in Q1 2026, building on the 0.6% QOQ increase in the previous quarter (see Table 1). The final print was higher than the flash estimates of a 0.3% QOQ growth released earlier this month. The Outside Central Region (OCR) likely contributed to the increase as the transactions at the end of March at Pinery Residences were factored in.

Table 1: URA Private Property Price Index (PPI) - Q1 2026

Source: PropNex Research, URA

Prices

The landed private homes segment posted its first price decline in five quarters in Q1 2026 with prices falling by 0.4% QOQ following a healthy 3.4% QOQ increase in the previous quarter. This may be partly attributed to the lower landed home sales in the quarter at 477 units - down by 17% from 575 units in Q4 2025, according to URA Realis caveat data. The lower sales could be due to a mismatch in price expectations between sellers and buyers, as well as the Middle East war possibly affecting landed housing market sentiment.

In contrast, non-landed private home prices booked their strongest showing in five quarters with a 1.3% QOQ increase in Q1 2026 - reversing the 0.2% QOQ drop in Q4 2025. The increase was led by the Outside Central Region (OCR) where prices climbed by 2.2% QOQ as this sub-market drove new home sales during the quarter. Meanwhile, prices rose slightly in the Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) by 0.6% QOQ and 0.8% QOQ, respectively in Q1 2026.

Several factors likely contributed to the resilience in non-landed private home prices, such as the high take-up rates at new launches at firm prices, stabilising interest rates which supported buyer confidence, and the steady HDB upgrading demand for new private homes. Furthermore, the stock of unsold uncompleted private homes remained low as at end of Q1 2026 at 16,095 units (ex. EC) - up by 8% from the 14,859 units (ex. EC) in the previous quarter but still lower than the figures for most part of the past three years.

Private Residential Transactions

Overall private home sales fell by 19% QOQ to 5,413 units (ex. EC) in Q1 2026 from a total of 6,699 units in Q4 2025 as transactions moderated across the various sales categories. New home sales came in at 2,013 units (ex. EC) - down by 32% QOQ from 2,940 units in Q4 2025. Resale deals declined by 9% QOQ to 3,225 units, while sub-sales fell by 24% QOQ to 175 units in Q1 2026.

Of note, this marks the fourth straight quarter of decline in the number of sub-sale transactions, suggesting that most homeowners are in it for the long-haul. Taken together, PropNex believes that a tight unsold inventory and limited speculative pressure could contribute to market stability, as many owners have the financial power to hold on to their properties, while the low unsold stock can support prices in the primary market.

Over in the EC market, developers sold 1,168 new EC units in Q1 2026 - marking the highest quarterly EC sales in more than eight years since 1,415 units were transacted in Q3 2017. Developers launched 1,320 EC units for sale in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly launch figure since Q3 2015. The strong performance came off the robust sales at new EC launches Coastal Cabana and Rivelle Tampines which are located close to the MRT station and amenities in Pasir Ris and Tampines West, respectively. In particular, the median unit price for new EC units sold has now reached an all-time high at $1,836 psf in Q1 2026, as per caveats lodged.

Private Home Rentals

Rentals of private homes rose slightly by 0.3% QOQ in Q1 2026, overturning the 0.5% QOQ decline in the previous quarter. Private residential leasing volume improved slightly during the quarter, rising by 4% QOQ to 20,861 rental contracts, as per URA Realis data. Meanwhile, the median rental also inched up from $5.05 psf per month in Q4 2025 to $5.13 psf pm in Q1 2026.

The URA noted that 911 private residential units and 360 EC units were completed in Q1 2026. A further 5,371 private homes and 512 EC units are expected to be completed in the rest of 2026. Completions are projected to rise progressively in the years to come at 8,489 and 10,358 units of private homes (ex. EC) in 2027 and 2028, respectively which may potentially put pressure on rentals in the future as the leasing stock grows.

Mr Kelvin Fong, CEO of PropNex said:

"The private housing market started 2026 on a slightly more cautious tone following the robust finish of 2025, but remained nonetheless resilient with many new launches garnering high take-up rates. That demand for new private homes has continued to be firm amidst the spike in uncertainties arising from the war in the Middle East also highlighted the deep liquidity and strong confidence of homebuyers in Singapore. We note that buyers generally remain selective, gravitating towards projects near MRT stations and amenities - a 'flight to convenience', if you will.

In Q1 2026, the URA property price index continued to rise in a measured manner which is a positive trend from the perspective of achieving a sustainable property market. We believe the modest price growth can also present a window of opportunity to enter the market- where prospective buyers will not have to chase rapidly rising prices and be rushed into making a purchase for fear of being priced out later on.

Based on our analysis of the URA PPI and private home sales trends in the last 20 years (see Chart 1), it appears that private home prices have become less sensitive to weaker sales volumes post-COVID. Prices have remained sticky and continued to climb despite slower sales in the period around 2022 to mid-2024 (orange arrow in chart), compared with the global financial crisis in 2008, and the stretch from mid-2013 to 2016 where lower volumes had tracked quite closely with the decline in the PPI (green arrows).

Chart 1: URA PPI and private residential property transaction volumes (new sales, resale, sub-sale) (ex. EC) from 2006

Source: PropNex Research, URA

Some factors that have helped to support this price stickiness may include stronger household balance sheets and rising wealth which have improved owners' financial resilience, new launches maintaining their pricing power, a manageable level of unsold stock in the market, as well as less speculative pressure compared with 2007/08, for instance. In addition, the healthy growth in HDB resale prices post-COVID could have provided additional purchasing power for upgraders which may contribute to price resilience in the private housing segment.

Moving into Q2 2026, we expect private home prices could remain on a stable, albeit modest, upward trajectory - as long as the new launches continue to book robust sales, prices will likely hold. Some of the major new projects slated for Q2 include Vela Bay in Bayshore, Tengah Garden Residences, and Hudson Place Residences in Media Circle.

According to the URA, there were 16,095 unsold uncompleted private homes (ex. EC) as at the end of Q1 2026 - not far from historical lows of around 14,000 units. Going by the 10-year average annual developers' sales at 9,106 units (ex. EC) from 2016 to 2025, the unsold stock as at Q1 2026 can potentially be absorbed in around two years, which we consider to be a relatively tight supply.

For the whole of 2026, PropNex projects that developers' sales may hover at around 9,000 units (ex. EC), while the private resale transaction volume could come in at about 14,000 to 15,000 units. Meanwhile, we expect overall private home prices may continue to grow moderately at 3% to 4% in 2026."

Q1 2026 HDB Resale Price Index

Figures from the Housing and Development Board (HDB) showed that resale flat prices dipped by 0.1% QOQ in Q1 2026 (see Table 2), after remaining unchanged in Q4 2025. This marks the first quarterly decline in the HDB resale price index in nearly seven years, since the 0.2% quarterly drop in prices in Q2 2019. The final print was unchanged from the flash estimates released earlier in April.

The moderation in prices had perhaps fuelled a recovery in transactions. There were 6,285 HDB resale flats sold in Q1 2026 - up by nearly 20% from 5,256 units resold in the previous quarter (see Chart 2).

Table 2: HDB Resale Price Index

Source: PropNex Research, HDB

Chart 2: HDB resale flat volume by Quarter from 2019

Source: PropNex Research, HDB

Ms Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research and Content at PropNex, said.

"The quarterly decline in the HDB resale price index for the first time in nearly seven years in Q1 2026 marks a meaningful inflection point, following an extended period of healthy growth in resale flat prices. It suggests that the effects of various rounds of cooling measures and the boosting of new HDB flat supply in the past years are taking hold and working through the market. From 2021 to 2025, the HDB has launched more than 102,000 new build-to-order (BTO) flats which have helped to satisfy the strong demand for public housing.

With the dip in resale prices in Q1 2026, we are watchful on whether this marks the start of a downward trend - such as back in Q3 2013 - and whether the gap between the HDB resale prices and non-landed private home prices, particularly in the OCR will continue to widen. In Q1 2026, HDB resale prices dipped by 0.1% QOQ, while non-landed private home prices in the OCR rose by 2.2% QOQ. A widening HDB resale-private housing price gap over time may potentially make the leap for HDB upgraders more challenging.

Although the overall HDB resale market has softened, we note the market bifurcation as the "million-dollar" resale flat segment remained resilient in Q1 2026. This points to improving affordability for majority of the flats, while some of the choicest units in attractive locations continue to see pricing upside. Sales data showed that there were 412 flats resold for at least $1 million in Q1 2026 - nearly 18% higher than the 350 such flats transacted in Q4 2025. They comprised 190 units of 4-room flats, 143 units of 5-room flats, 78 executive flats, and a multi-generation flat.

Of note, a 5-room flat in Dawson Road in Queenstown was resold for $1.7 million in February 2026, marking a new record price for HDB resale flats, based on transactions captured on the government's open data portal.

HDB's announcement showed that the median price of 4-room resale flats in Queenstown and Toa Payoh reached $1 million in Q1 2026. This may be attributed to the substantial number of million-dollar resale deals done during the quarter in each town. In Queenstown, 40 out of the 67 resale 4-room flats sold had fetched at least $1 million, while in Toa Payoh, 52 out of the 102 units of 4-room flats resold were million-dollar deals, based on sales data. Meanwhile, the median price of 5-room flats crossed $1 million in three towns in Q1 2026, namely Ang Mo Kio, Bukit Merah, and Toa Payoh.

In view of the higher number of flats reaching their 5-year minimum occupation period (MOP) in 2026 - at 13,500 units compared with 8,000 units in 2025 - and the stable demand for resale flats, we project that the HDB resale volume may likely hover at around 26,000 to 27,000 units in the whole of 2026. Meanwhile, we anticipate that HDB resale prices could rise by 2% to 3% in 2026."